erniefreeman's Blog

It's a little late for 2007, but this might be the best gift I could ever give Memphis Police Director Larry Godwin; a new way to look at crime statistics, especially, but not limited to homicides in Memphis.  The old way was the figures don't lie, liars figure approach.  That's where the Police Director would hold a new conference around the first of October tell us Memphians about the homicide rate being down.   And that's when some of us Memphians would get that one eye half closed, mouth twisted look on our faces and ask in that high pitched almost squealing voice, whaaaat?  It's not that Mr. Godwin was technically lying.  But in terms of significant statistics, he wasn't really painting a clear picture for the people of this city who are concerned about cime in general, killings in particular.  When Mr. Godwin made that statement in October about the homicide rate being down seven percent, the city was on the same pace for homicides in 2007 as it was in 2006.  We were experiencing roughly 13 killings a month.  We had 160 homicides in 2006 in Memphis.  As of this posting, on the last day of the year,  the homicide unit of the Memphis Police Department is reporting 163 homicides for 2007.  I'm no math major, but that doesn't appear to be a decline.  Maybe someone has told Director Godwin that Memphians will feel better if you stand in front of a microphone and simply announce the homicide rate is down, whether it's actually down or not.  That seems a curious notion.  And this is my belated gift to the Director:  Rather than trying to  spin statistically insignificant weekly or monthly ebbs in crime stats to put people at ease, why not focus on the statistically significant solve rate, especially for homicides.  The hard working men and women of the homicide unit actually capture nearly ninety percent of the killers in Memphis.  Now, that's a statistic!  That actually makes me feel a little safer.  And would probably make the detectives feel better too.  Oh, and how about this, do some perp walks (defendants on Fox-13 News at five) so the citizens can actually see the alleged killers being arrested.  That would make me feel a little safer.  Not much, but a little.  And, it might serve as a deterrent to other would be killers.  Who knows?  Can't hurt, can it?  So there it is Mr. Godwin, my belated Christmas gift to you; a plea to focus on the solve rate, not the crime rate in Memphis.  We would love it in the media, citizens would love it, and your homicide detectives would get some well deserved credit and attention for a job well done.  So, let's forget the fuzzy math.  Leave the spin machine at 201 Poplar.  Let's make 2008 the year of real stats that matter.    Merry Christmas.